Ochoa Against Open Thoughts

Golf Betting Lines

QUESTIONS - British Open edition

 

I think he might be my favorite golfer in the world right now. When nobody ever makes a move at Tiger, DiMarco does. He went through his fair share of tragedy leading up to the British with his mom suddenly dying July 4th. It makes me giddy that he will almost certainly make the Ryder Cup team and if he's not one of the top 10, Tom Lehman would single-handedly redefine the word "stupid."

 

First of all, I am not a fashion expert, but two different yellows? That's hideous. Anyway, I am officially doubting whether or not Sergio will win a major. He's only 26, but he is not tough. Garcia's final-round scoring average is horrible and he doesn't step up in big tournaments on Sunday. Basically, I would like to paraphrase my colleague Dan Di Sciullo who wondered aloud if a doctor would need to examine Sergio to find out if he is actually a man.

 

4.) What were your thoughts of Royal Liverpool?

 

In the minority here as far as I've heard, but I really liked it. Two par- fives in the last three holes? That's awesome. Sure it was browner than a chocolate Easter bunny, but I thought it was fair and much trickier than the scores indicated. With no wind, any course in the United Kingdom is defenseless.

 

Ryan Moore is ready to break out. This is the time with a semi-weak field. By the way, collected my first win last week with Tiger. The season starts in January, so finally winning in late July is certainly not bad. Also, I'm pegging Eduardo Romero in the Senior British.

 

CHAMPIONS 1. Loren Roberts 2. Jay Haas 3. Gil Morgan 4. Brad Bryant 5. Peter Jacobsen 6. Tom Watson 7. Morris Hatalsky 8. Bobby Wadkins 9. Tom Kite 10. Hale Irwin

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Stanley Cup betting

New York, NY – October 3, 2007 – The dress rehearsal is over! The NHL preseason has ended and now that fans have had a glimpse of what is to come it is time to hit the book! Stanley Cup odds are live at MySportsbook.com, the world’s largest online sportsbook and casino.

The Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings remain on top of the odds charts after an impressive start in the preseason. Betting lines opened for both teams at 6-1 in June. Since then the Sens have fallen to 7-1 and the Red Wings are now caught in a pack including the defending champion Carolina Hurricanes, the San Jose Sharks and the Anaheim Ducks, all at 10-1.

MySportsbook.com has also posted props on each team’s point total for the regular season. The Senators lead the charge at 108.5 followed by the Ducks at 106.5. Detroit will attempt a repeat for the prize as the Red Wings are deadlocked with the Predators at 104.5 a piece. The temporary loss of highly touted rookie Evgeni Malkin puts a lot of pressure on the stick of assistant captain Sidney Crosby - his lowly Pittsburgh Penguins are listed at 71.5.

Even if bettors are not brave enough to put their money on the underdog, an early bet on the favorites at sportsbook.com tends to produce bigger payouts than a mid-season wager. Placing a $1,000 bet last summer on the Detroit Red Wings or Ottawa Senators would have paid out to $8,000 and $10,000 respectively, opposed to a $2,500 or $3,000 payout at the beginning of the playoffs.

Stanley Cup Odds    

 Ottawa Senators
Detroit Red Wings 
Carolina Hurricanes  
San Jose Sharks     
Anaheim Ducks    
Philadelphia Flyers 
Calgary Flames     
New Jersey Devils 
Buffalo Sabres   
Dallas Stars    
New York Rangers  
Nashville Predators  
Vancouver Canucks 
Colorado Avalanche  
Minnesota Wild    
Tampa Bay Lightning    
Boston Bruins    
Florida Panthers   
Montreal Canadiens   
Atlanta Thrashers 
Toronto Maple Leafs  
Edmonton Oilers      
Phoenix Coyotes    
Los Angeles Kings      
New York Islanders   
Columbus Blue Jackets  
St. Louis Blues      
Pittsburgh Penguins 
Washington Capitals   
Chicago Blackhawks    		 7-1
10-1
10-1
10-1
10-1
12-1
12-1
12-1
12-1
15-1
15-1
15-1
20-1
20-1
25-1
25-1
30-1
30-1
30-1
30-1
30-1
30-1
40-1
40-1
50-1
50-1
80-1
80-1
100-1
100-1 

NHL Regular Season Points - Team Must Play 82 Games 

Team     
Ottawa Senators      
Anaheim Ducks 
Detroit Red Wings   
Nashville Predators 
San Jose Sharks 
Calgary Flames     
Philadelphia Flyers    
New Jersey Devils     
Buffalo Sabres    
Carolina Hurricanes       
Dallas Stars          
New York Rangers   
Minnesota Wild     
Atlanta Thrashers     
Montreal Canadiens    
Team        
Los Angeles Kings           
Tampa Bay Lightening   
Vancouver Canucks 
Boston Bruins       
Colorado Avalanche 
Edmonton Oilers  
Phoenix Coyotes  
Toronto Maple Leafs   
Florida Panthers 
Columbus Blue Jackets   
New York Islanders   
Chicago Blackhawks  
St. Louis Blues  
Washington Capitals 
Pittsburgh Penguins  		 Over/Under
108.5
106.5
104.5
104.5
103.5
101.5
100.5
99.5
97.5
97.5
97.5
95.5
94.5
93.5
92.5
Over/Under
91.5
91.5
91.5
89.5
89.5
88.5
88.5
86.5
84.5
82.5
80.5
72.5
72.5
72.5
71.5

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your hockey sportsbook needs.